Jon Michael Gran

• Stensrud, Mats Julius & Gran, Jon Michael (2020). Randomisering under en pandemi. Tidsskrift for Den norske legeforening.  ISSN 0029-2001.  140(10) . doi: 10.4045/tidsskr.20.0439
• Djordjilovic, Vera; Page, Christian Magnus; Gran, Jon Michael; Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel M; Veierød, Marit Bragelien & Thoresen, Magne (2019). Global test for high-dimensional mediation: Testing groups of potential mediators. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  38(18), s 3346- 3360 . doi: 10.1002/sim.8199 Full text in Research Archive.
• Gran, Jon Michael & Aalen, Odd O. (2019). Letter to the Editor: Comparison of statistical approaches dealing with time-dependent confounding in drug effectiveness studies (SMMR, Vol. 27, Issue 6, 2018). Statistical Methods in Medical Research.  ISSN 0962-2802.  28(1), s 321- 322 . doi: 10.1177/0962280218811177
• Hoff, Rune; Putter, Hein; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind & Gran, Jon Michael (2019). Landmark estimation of transition probabilities in non-Markov multi-state models with covariates. Lifetime Data Analysis.  ISSN 1380-7870.  25(4), s 660- 680 . doi: 10.1007/s10985-019-09474-0 Full text in Research Archive. Show summary

  In non-Markov multi-state models, the traditional Aalen–Johansen (AJ) estimator for state transition probabilities is generally not valid. An alternative, suggested by Putter and Spitioni, is to analyse a subsample of the full data, consisting of the individuals present in a specific state at a given landmark time-point. The AJ estimator of occupation probabilities is then applied to the landmark subsample. Exploiting the result by Datta and Satten, that the AJ estimator is consistent for state occupation probabilities even in non-Markov models given that censoring is independent of state occupancy and times of transition between states, the landmark Aalen–Johansen (LMAJ) estimator provides consistent estimates of transition probabilities. So far, this approach has only been studied for non-parametric estimation without covariates. In this paper, we show how semi-parametric regression models and inverse probability weights can be used in combination with the LMAJ estimator to perform covariate adjusted analyses. The methods are illustrated by a simulation study and an application to population-wide registry data on work, education and health-related absence in Norway. Results using the traditional AJ estimator and the LMAJ estimator are compared, and show large differences in estimated transition probabilities for highly non-Markov multi-state models.

• Aalen, Odd O.; Gran, Jon Michael; Røysland, Kjetil; Stensrud, Mats Julius & Strohmaier, Susanne (2018). Feedback and Mediation in Causal Inference Illustrated by Stochastic Process Models. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.  ISSN 0303-6898.  45(1), s 62- 86 . doi: 10.1111/sjos.12286
• Hoff, Rune; Corbett, Karina; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind; Mohn, Ferdinand A; Kristensen, Petter; Hanvold, Therese Nordberg & Gran, Jon Michael (2018). The impact of completing upper secondary education - a multi-state model for work, education and health in young men. BMC Public Health.  ISSN 1471-2458.  18 . doi: 10.1186/s12889-018-5420-y Full text in Research Archive. Show summary

  Background: Completing upper secondary education is associated with higher work participation and less health-related absence from work. Although these outcomes are closely interrelated, most studies focus on single outcomes, using cross-sectional designs or short follow-up periods. As such, there is limited knowledge of the long-term outcomes, and how paths for completers and non-completers unfold over time. In this paper, we use multi-state models for time-to-event data to assess the long-term effects of completing upper secondary education on employment, tertiary education, sick leave, and disability pension over twelve and a half years for young men. Methods: Baseline covariates and twelve and a half years of follow-up data on employment, tertiary education, sick leave and disability pension were obtained from national registries for all males born in Norway between 1971 and 1976 (n =184951). The effects of completing upper secondary education (by age 23) were analysed in a multi-state framework, adjusting for both individual and family level confounders. All analyses were done separately for general studies and vocational tracks. Results: Completers do better on a range of outcomes compared to non-completers, for both fields of upper secondary education, but effects of completion change over time. The largest changes are for tertiary education and work, with the probability of work increasing reciprocally to the probability of education. Vocational students are quicker to transfer to the labour market, but tend to have more unemployment, sick leave and disability, and the absolute effects of completion on these outcomes are largest for vocational tracks. However, the relative effects of completion are larger for general studies. Conclusion: Completing upper secondary education increases long-term work participation and lowers health-related absence for young men, but effects diminish over time. Studies that have used shorter follow-up periods could be overstating the negative effects of dropout on labour market participation. Multi-state models are well suited to analyse data on work, education and health-related absence, and can be useful in understanding the dynamic aspects of these outcomes.

• Iuliano, A Danielle; Roguski, Katherine M; Chang, Howard H; Muscatello, David J; Palekar, Rakhee; Tempia, Stefano; Cohen, Cheryl; Gran, Jon Michael; Schanzer, Dena; Cowling, Benjamin J; Wu, Peng; Kyncl, Jan; Ang, Li Wei; Park, Minah; Redlberger-Fritz, Monika; Yu, Hongjie; Espenhain, Laura; Krishnan, Anand; Emukule, Gideon; van Asten, Liselotte; Pereira da Silva, Susana; Aungkulanon, Suchunya; Buchholz, Udo; Widdowson, Marc-Alain & Bresee, Joseph S (2018). Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study. The Lancet.  ISSN 0140-6736.  391(10127), s 1285- 1300 . doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)33293-2
• Gran, Jon Michael; Hoff, Rune; Røysland, Kjetil; Ledergerber, Bruno; Young, James & Aalen, Odd O. (2017). Estimating the treatment effect on the treated under time-dependent confounding in an application to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics).  ISSN 0035-9254.  67(1), s 103- 125 . doi: 10.1111/rssc.12221 Full text in Research Archive.
• Prague, Mélanie; Commenges, Daniel; Gran, Jon Michael; Ledergerber, Bruno; Young, Jim; Furrer, Hansjakob & Thiébaut, Rodolphe (2017). Dynamic models for estimating the effect of HAART on CD4 in observational studies: Application to the Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Biometrics.  ISSN 0006-341X.  73(1), s 294- 304 . doi: 10.1111/biom.12564
• Aalen, Odd O.; Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael; Kouyos, Roger & Lange, Theis (2016). Can we believe the DAGs? A comment on the relationship between causal DAGs and mechanisms. Statistical Methods in Medical Research.  ISSN 0962-2802.  25(5), s 2294- 2314 . doi: 10.1177/0962280213520436
• Gran, Jon Michael; Lie, Stein Atle; Øyeflaten, Irene Larsen; Borgan, Ørnulf & Aalen, Odd O. (2015). Causal inference in multi-state models-sickness absence and work for 1145 participants after work rehabilitation. BMC Public Health.  ISSN 1471-2458.  15:1082 . doi: 10.1186/s12889-015-2408-8 Full text in Research Archive.
• Hoff, Rune; Gran, Jon Michael & Daniel, Farewell (2014). Farewell’s Linear Increments Model for Missing Data: The FLIM Package. The R Journal.  ISSN 2073-4859.  6(2), s 137- 150 . doi: 10.32614/rj-2014-030
• Aalen, Odd O.; Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael & Ledergerber, Bruno (2012). Causality, mediation and time: a dynamic viewpoint. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).  ISSN 0964-1998.  175(4), s 831- 861 . doi: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01030.x
• Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael; Ledergerber, Bruno; von Wyl, Viktor; Young, James A. & Aalen, Odd O. (2011). Analyzing direct and indirect effects of treatment using dynamic path analysis applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  30(24), s 2947- 2958 . doi: 10.1002/sim.4324
• Gran, Jon Michael; Røysland, Kjetil; Wolbers, Marcel; Didelez, Vanessa; Sterne, Jonathan AC; Ledergerber, Bruno; Furrer, Hansjakob; von Wyl, Viktor & Aalen, Odd O. (2010). A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  29(26), s 2757- 2768 . doi: 10.1002/sim.4048
• Gran, JM; Wasmuth, L; Amundsen, EJ; Lindqvist, Bo Henry & Aalen, OO (2008). Growth rates in epidemic models: Application to a model for HIV/AIDS progression. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  27, s 4819- 4836 . doi: 10.1002/sim.3219 Show summary

  The most common quantity used to describe the growth of an epidemic when modelling infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number R0. While R0 is most appropriate for epidemics with short-lasting infections, long-lasting infections such as HIV/AIDS may call for the use of growth rates with other properties. For a group of multi-state compartment models we define both R0, the actual reproduction number Ra(t), and the intrinsic growth rate r .We study the relationship between these different reproduction numbers and growth rates and take a brief look at how they could be estimated from actual observed data. The work is illustrated by a model for HIV/AIDS progression among homosexual men in England and Wales. We conclude that other measures of growth, in addition to R0, give important supplementary information.

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• Juhl, Claus Bogh; Holst, René; Mundbjerg, Lene Hymøller; Stolberg, Charlotte; Gran, Jon Michael & Thomsen, Gert Frank (2021). Effect of bariatric surgery on employment status -a 7 years controlled nationwide registry study. BMJ Open.  ISSN 2044-6055.  11(6) . doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042845
• Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting; Gran, Jon Michael; Hofvind, Solveig & Eskild, Anne (2020). The association of birthweight with age at natural menopause: a population study of women in Norway. International Journal of Epidemiology.  ISSN 0300-5771.  49(2), s 528- 536 . doi: 10.1093/ije/dyz207 Full text in Research Archive.
• Gottschalk, Marthe Sørli; Eskild, Anne; Hofvind, Solveig; Gran, Jon Michael & Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting (2020). Temporal trends in age at menarche and age at menopause: a population study of 312 656 women in Norway. Human Reproduction.  ISSN 0268-1161.  35(2), s 464- 471 . doi: 10.1093/humrep/dez288 Full text in Research Archive.
• Gunnes, Nina; Gjessing, Håkon K.; Bakken, Inger Johanne Landsjøåsen; Ghaderi, Sara; Gran, Jon Michael; Hungnes, Olav; Magnus, Per; Samuelsen, Sven Ove; Skrondal, Anders; Stoltenberg, Camilla; Trogstad, Lill; Wilcox, Allen James & Håberg, Siri Eldevik (2020). Seasonal and pandemic influenza during pregnancy and risk of fetal death: A Norwegian registry‑based cohort study. European Journal of Epidemiology (EJE).  ISSN 0393-2990.  35, s 371- 379 . doi: 10.1007/s10654-020-00600-z Full text in Research Archive.
• Mitlid-Mork, Birgitte; Bowe, Sophie; Gran, Jon Michael; Bolstad, Nils; Berg, Jens Petter; Redman, Christopher W.G.; Staff, Anne Cathrine & Sugulle, Meryam (2020). Maternal placental growth factor and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 reference ranges in post-term pregnancies: A prospective observational study. PLOS ONE.  ISSN 1932-6203.  15:e0240473(10), s 1- 14 . doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0240473 Full text in Research Archive.
• Øjlert, Åsa Kristina; Nebdal, Daniel J.H.; Lund-Iversen, Marius; Ellefsen, Renée Åstrøm; Brustugun, Odd Terje; Gran, Jon Michael; Halvorsen, Ann Rita & Helland, Åslaug (2020). Immune checkpoint blockade in the treatment of advanced non-small cell lung cancer–predictors of response and impact of previous radiotherapy. Acta Oncologica.  ISSN 0284-186X.  s 1- 9 . doi: 10.1080/0284186X.2020.1854851 Full text in Research Archive.
• Sundbakk, Lene Maria; Wood, Mollie; Gran, Jon Michael & Nordeng, Hedvig Marie Egeland (2019). Impact of prenatal exposure to benzodiazepines and z-hypnotics on behavioral problems at 5 years of age: A study from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. PLOS ONE.  ISSN 1932-6203.  14(6) . doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217830 Full text in Research Archive.
• Djordjilovic, Vera; Page, Christian Magnus; Gran, Jon Michael; Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Sandanger, Torkjel M; Veierød, Marit Bragelien & Thoresen, Magne (2019). Global test for high-dimensional mediation: Testing groups of potential mediators. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  38(18), s 3346- 3360 . doi: 10.1002/sim.8199 Full text in Research Archive.
• Hoff, Rune; Putter, Hein; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind & Gran, Jon Michael (2019). Landmark estimation of transition probabilities in non-Markov multi-state models with covariates. Lifetime Data Analysis.  ISSN 1380-7870.  25(4), s 660- 680 . doi: 10.1007/s10985-019-09474-0 Full text in Research Archive. Show summary

  In non-Markov multi-state models, the traditional Aalen–Johansen (AJ) estimator for state transition probabilities is generally not valid. An alternative, suggested by Putter and Spitioni, is to analyse a subsample of the full data, consisting of the individuals present in a specific state at a given landmark time-point. The AJ estimator of occupation probabilities is then applied to the landmark subsample. Exploiting the result by Datta and Satten, that the AJ estimator is consistent for state occupation probabilities even in non-Markov models given that censoring is independent of state occupancy and times of transition between states, the landmark Aalen–Johansen (LMAJ) estimator provides consistent estimates of transition probabilities. So far, this approach has only been studied for non-parametric estimation without covariates. In this paper, we show how semi-parametric regression models and inverse probability weights can be used in combination with the LMAJ estimator to perform covariate adjusted analyses. The methods are illustrated by a simulation study and an application to population-wide registry data on work, education and health-related absence in Norway. Results using the traditional AJ estimator and the LMAJ estimator are compared, and show large differences in estimated transition probabilities for highly non-Markov multi-state models.

• Kvakkestad, Kristin Marie; Gran, Jon Michael; Eritsland, Jan; Hansen, Charlotte Holst; Fossum, Eigil; Andersen, Geir Øystein & Halvorsen, Sigrun (2019). Long-term survival after invasive or conservative strategy in elderly patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction: A prospective cohort study. Cardiology.  ISSN 0008-6312.  s 1- 11 . doi: 10.1159/000503442 Full text in Research Archive.
• Ofstad, Anne Pernille; Sommer, Christine; Birkeland, Kåre I.; Bjørgaas, Marit Ragnhild Rokne; Gran, Jon Michael; Gulseth, Hanne Løvdal & Johansen, Odd Erik (2019). Comparison of the associations between non-traditional and traditional indices of adiposity and cardiovascular mortality: an observational study of one million person-years of follow-up. International Journal of Obesity.  ISSN 0307-0565.  43(5), s 1082- 1092 . doi: 10.1038/s41366-019-0353-9 Full text in Research Archive.
• Aalen, Odd O.; Gran, Jon Michael; Røysland, Kjetil; Stensrud, Mats Julius & Strohmaier, Susanne (2018). Feedback and Mediation in Causal Inference Illustrated by Stochastic Process Models. Scandinavian Journal of Statistics.  ISSN 0303-6898.  45(1), s 62- 86 . doi: 10.1111/sjos.12286
• Dieset, Ingrid; Mørch, Ragni Helene; Hope, Sigrun; Hoseth, Eva Zsuzsanna; Reponen, Elina Johanna; Gran, Jon Michael; Aas, Monica; Michelsen, Annika; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted; Nesvåg, Ragnar; Agartz, Ingrid; Melle, Ingrid; Aukrust, Pål; Djurovic, Srdjan; Ueland, Torill & Andreassen, Ole Andreas (2018). An association between YKL-40 and type 2 diabetes in psychotic disorders. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica.  ISSN 0001-690X.  139, s 37- 45 . doi: 10.1111/acps.12971
• Hoff, Rune; Corbett, Karina; Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind; Mohn, Ferdinand A; Kristensen, Petter; Hanvold, Therese Nordberg & Gran, Jon Michael (2018). The impact of completing upper secondary education - a multi-state model for work, education and health in young men. BMC Public Health.  ISSN 1471-2458.  18 . doi: 10.1186/s12889-018-5420-y Full text in Research Archive. Show summary

  Background: Completing upper secondary education is associated with higher work participation and less health-related absence from work. Although these outcomes are closely interrelated, most studies focus on single outcomes, using cross-sectional designs or short follow-up periods. As such, there is limited knowledge of the long-term outcomes, and how paths for completers and non-completers unfold over time. In this paper, we use multi-state models for time-to-event data to assess the long-term effects of completing upper secondary education on employment, tertiary education, sick leave, and disability pension over twelve and a half years for young men. Methods: Baseline covariates and twelve and a half years of follow-up data on employment, tertiary education, sick leave and disability pension were obtained from national registries for all males born in Norway between 1971 and 1976 (n =184951). The effects of completing upper secondary education (by age 23) were analysed in a multi-state framework, adjusting for both individual and family level confounders. All analyses were done separately for general studies and vocational tracks. Results: Completers do better on a range of outcomes compared to non-completers, for both fields of upper secondary education, but effects of completion change over time. The largest changes are for tertiary education and work, with the probability of work increasing reciprocally to the probability of education. Vocational students are quicker to transfer to the labour market, but tend to have more unemployment, sick leave and disability, and the absolute effects of completion on these outcomes are largest for vocational tracks. However, the relative effects of completion are larger for general studies. Conclusion: Completing upper secondary education increases long-term work participation and lowers health-related absence for young men, but effects diminish over time. Studies that have used shorter follow-up periods could be overstating the negative effects of dropout on labour market participation. Multi-state models are well suited to analyse data on work, education and health-related absence, and can be useful in understanding the dynamic aspects of these outcomes.

• Iuliano, A Danielle; Roguski, Katherine M; Chang, Howard H; Muscatello, David J; Palekar, Rakhee; Tempia, Stefano; Cohen, Cheryl; Gran, Jon Michael; Schanzer, Dena; Cowling, Benjamin J; Wu, Peng; Kyncl, Jan; Ang, Li Wei; Park, Minah; Redlberger-Fritz, Monika; Yu, Hongjie; Espenhain, Laura; Krishnan, Anand; Emukule, Gideon; van Asten, Liselotte; Pereira da Silva, Susana; Aungkulanon, Suchunya; Buchholz, Udo; Widdowson, Marc-Alain & Bresee, Joseph S (2018). Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study. The Lancet.  ISSN 0140-6736.  391(10127), s 1285- 1300 . doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)33293-2
• Shetelig, Christian; Limalanathan, Shanmuganathan; HOFFMANN, PAVEL; Seljeflot, Ingebjørg; Gran, Jon Michael; Eritsland, Jan & Andersen, Geir Øystein (2018). Association of IL-8 With Infarct Size and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With STEMI. Journal of the American College of Cardiology.  ISSN 0735-1097.  72(2), s 187- 198 . doi: 10.1016/j.jacc.2018.04.053
• Svendsen, Karianne; Telle-Hansen, Vibeke; Telle-Hansen, Vibeke; Mørch-Reiersen, Lisa T.; Mørch-Reiersen, Lisa Therese; Garstad, Kjersti W.; Thyholt, Kari; Granlund, Linda; Grandlund, Linda; Henriksen, Hege; Gran, Jon Michael; Jacobs Jr, David; Jacobs Jr, D. R. & Retterstøl, Kjetil (2018). A randomized controlled trial in Norwegian pharmacies on effects of risk alert and advice in people with elevated cardiovascular risk. Preventive Medicine Reports.  ISSN 2211-3355.  12, s 79- 86 . doi: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2018.08.004 Full text in Research Archive.
• Astrup, Guro Lindviksmoen; Rustøen, Tone; Hofsø, Kristin; Gran, Jon Michael & Bjordal, Kristin (2017). Symptom burden and patient characteristics: Association with quality of life in patients with head and neck cancer undergoing radiotherapy. Head and Neck.  ISSN 1043-3074.  39(10), s 2114- 2126 . doi: 10.1002/hed.24875
• Belay, Denekew Bitew; Kifle, Yehenew Getachew; Goshu, Ayele Taye; Gran, Jon Michael; Yewhalaw, Delenasaw; Duchateau, Luc & Frigessi, Arnoldo (2017). Joint Bayesian modeling of time to malaria and mosquito abundance in Ethiopia. BMC Infectious Diseases.  ISSN 1471-2334.  17(1) . doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2496-4 Full text in Research Archive.
• Gran, Jon Michael; Hoff, Rune; Røysland, Kjetil; Ledergerber, Bruno; Young, James & Aalen, Odd O. (2017). Estimating the treatment effect on the treated under time-dependent confounding in an application to the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C (Applied Statistics).  ISSN 0035-9254.  67(1), s 103- 125 . doi: 10.1111/rssc.12221 Full text in Research Archive.
• Prague, Mélanie; Commenges, Daniel; Gran, Jon Michael; Ledergerber, Bruno; Young, Jim; Furrer, Hansjakob & Thiébaut, Rodolphe (2017). Dynamic models for estimating the effect of HAART on CD4 in observational studies: Application to the Aquitaine Cohort and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Biometrics.  ISSN 0006-341X.  73(1), s 294- 304 . doi: 10.1111/biom.12564
• Shetelig, Christian; Shanmuganathan, Limalanathan; Eritsland, Jan; HOFFMANN, PAVEL; Seljeflot, Ingebjørg; Gran, Jon Michael; Aukrust, Pål; Ueland, Thor & Andersen, Geir Øystein (2017). Osteoprotegerin levels in ST-elevation myocardial infarction: Temporal profile and association with myocardial injury and left ventricular function. PLOS ONE.  ISSN 1932-6203.  12:e0173034(3), s 1- 14 . doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0173034 Full text in Research Archive.
• Aalen, Odd O.; Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael; Kouyos, Roger & Lange, Theis (2016). Can we believe the DAGs? A comment on the relationship between causal DAGs and mechanisms. Statistical Methods in Medical Research.  ISSN 0962-2802.  25(5), s 2294- 2314 . doi: 10.1177/0962280213520436
• Torvik, Kristin; Narverud, Ingunn; Ottestad, Inger; Svilaas, Arne B; Gran, Jon Michael; Retterstøl, Kjetil; Ellingvåg, Asta; Strøm, Ellen C; Ose, Leiv; Veierød, Marit Bragelien & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2016). Dietary counseling is associated with an improved lipid profile in children with familial hypercholesterolemia. Atherosclerosis.  ISSN 0021-9150.  252, s 21- 27 . doi: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2016.07.913
• Corbett, Karina; Gran, Jon Michael; Kristensen, Petter & Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind (2015). Adult social position and sick leave: the mediating effect of physical workload. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment and Health.  ISSN 0355-3140.  41(6), s 542- 553 . doi: 10.5271/sjweh.3525 Show summary

  Objective: This study aimed to quantify how much of the adult social gradient in sick leave can be attributed to the mediating role of physical workload while accounting for the role of childhood and adolescent social position and neuroticism. Methods: Our sample consisted of 2099 women and 1229 men from a Norwegian birth cohort study (born 1967–1976) who participated in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (2006–2008) (HUNT3). Data on sick leave (defined as >16 calendar days; 2006–2009) and social position during childhood, adolescence, and adulthood were obtained from national registers. Study outcome was time-to-first sick leave spell. Physical workload and neuroticism were self-reported in HUNT3. Mediating effects through physical workload were estimated using a method based on the additive hazards survival model. Results: A hypothetical change from highest to lowest group in adult social position was, for women, associated with 51.6 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 24.7–78.5] additional spells per 100 000 person-days at risk, in a model adjusted for childhood and adolescent social position and neuroticism. The corresponding rate increase for men was 41.1 (95% CI 21.4–60.8). Of these additional spells, the proportion mediated through physical workload was 24% (95% CI 10–49) and 30% (95% CI 10–63) for women and men, respectively. Conclusions: The effect of adult social position on sick leave was partly mediated through physical workload, even while accounting for earlier life course factors. Our findings provide support that interventions aimed at reducing physical workload among those with lower adult social position could reduce sick leave risk.

• Gran, Jon Michael; Lie, Stein Atle; Øyeflaten, Irene Larsen; Borgan, Ørnulf & Aalen, Odd O. (2015). Causal inference in multi-state models-sickness absence and work for 1145 participants after work rehabilitation. BMC Public Health.  ISSN 1471-2458.  15:1082 . doi: 10.1186/s12889-015-2408-8 Full text in Research Archive.
• Narverud, Ingunn; van Lennep, Jeanine Roeters; Christensen, Jacob Juel; Versmissen, Jorie; Gran, Jon Michael; Iversen, Per Ole; Aukrust, Pål; Halvorsen, Bente; Ueland, Thor; Ulven, Stine Marie; Ose, Leiv; Veierød, Marit Bragelien; Sijbrands, Eric; Retterstøl, Kjetil & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2015). Maternal inheritance does not predict cholesterol levels in children with familial hypercholesterolemia. Atherosclerosis.  ISSN 0021-9150.  243(1), s 155- 160 . doi: 10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2015.09.014
• Hoff, Rune; Gran, Jon Michael & Daniel, Farewell (2014). Farewell’s Linear Increments Model for Missing Data: The FLIM Package. The R Journal.  ISSN 2073-4859.  6(2), s 137- 150 . doi: 10.32614/rj-2014-030
• Røislien, Jo; Clausen, Thomas; Gran, Jon Michael & Bukten, Anne (2014). Accounting for individual differences and timing of events: Estimating the effect of treatment on criminal convictions in heroin users. BMC Medical Research Methodology.  ISSN 1471-2288.  14(68) . doi: 10.1186/1471-2288-14-68
• Skjeldestad, Finn Egil; Bjørnholt, Jørgen; Gran, Jon Michael & Eriksen, Hanne-Merete (2014). The effect of antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines on surgical-site infections associated with cesarean delivery. International Journal of Gynecology & Obstetrics.  ISSN 0020-7292.  128(2), s 126- 130 . doi: 10.1016/j.ijgo.2014.08.018
• Gran, Jon Michael; Kacelnik, Oliver; Grjibovski, Andrej; Aavitsland, Preben & Iversen, Bjørn Gunnar (2013). Counting pandemic deaths: comparing reported numbers of death from influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 with estimated excess mortality. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses.  ISSN 1750-2640.  7(6), s 1370- 1379 . doi: 10.1111/irv.12125 Full text in Research Archive.
• Aalen, Odd O.; Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael & Ledergerber, Bruno (2012). Causality, mediation and time: a dynamic viewpoint. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).  ISSN 0964-1998.  175(4), s 831- 861 . doi: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.01030.x
• De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Xue, Yiting; Iversen, Bjørn Gunnar & Gran, Jon Michael (2012). Estimating influenza-related sick leave in Norway: Was work absenteeism higher during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic compared to seasonal epidemics?. Eurosurveillance.  ISSN 1025-496X.  17(33), s 15- 25
• Bentsen, Håvard; Solberg, Dag Kristen; Refsum, Helge; Gran, Jon Michael; Bøhmer, Thomas; Torjesen, Peter A; Halvorsen, Ola & Lingjærde, Odd (2011). Bimodal Distribution of Polyunsaturated Fatty Acids in Schizophrenia Suggests Two Endophenotypes of the Disorder. Biological Psychiatry.  ISSN 0006-3223.  70(1), s 97- 105 . doi: 10.1016/j.biopsych.2011.02.011
• Carlsen, Monica Hauger; Karlsen, Anette; Lillegaard, Inger Therese L.; Gran, Jon Michael; Drevon, Christian A; Blomhoff, Rune & Andersen, Lene Frost (2011). Relative validity of fruit and vegetable intake estimated from an FFQ, using carotenoid and flavonoid biomarkers and the method of triads. British Journal of Nutrition.  ISSN 0007-1145.  105(10), s 1530- 1538 . doi: 10.1017/S0007114510005246
• Reikvam, Dag Henrik; Perminow, Gøri Margrete; Lyckander, Lars Gustav; Gran, Jon Michael; Brandtzæg, Per; Vatn, Morten & Carlsen, Hege Synnøve (2011). Increase of regulatory T cells in ileal mucosa of untreated pediatric Crohn's disease patients. Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology.  ISSN 0036-5521.  46(5), s 550- 560 . doi: 10.3109/00365521.2011.551887
• Røysland, Kjetil; Gran, Jon Michael; Ledergerber, Bruno; von Wyl, Viktor; Young, James A. & Aalen, Odd O. (2011). Analyzing direct and indirect effects of treatment using dynamic path analysis applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  30(24), s 2947- 2958 . doi: 10.1002/sim.4324
• Gran, Jon Michael; Iversen, Bjørn Gunnar; Hungnes, Olav & Aalen, Odd O. (2010). Estimating influenza-related excess mortality and reproduction numbers for seasonal influenza in Norway, 1975-2004. Epidemiology and Infection.  ISSN 0950-2688.  138(11), s 1559- 1568 . doi: 10.1017/S0950268810000671
• Gran, Jon Michael; Røysland, Kjetil; Wolbers, Marcel; Didelez, Vanessa; Sterne, Jonathan AC; Ledergerber, Bruno; Furrer, Hansjakob; von Wyl, Viktor & Aalen, Odd O. (2010). A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  29(26), s 2757- 2768 . doi: 10.1002/sim.4048
• Haugaa, Kristina Hermann; Edvardsen, Thor; Leren, Trond P.; Gran, Jon Michael; Smiseth, Otto A. & Amlie, Jan Peder (2009). Left ventricular mechanical dispersion by tissue Doppler imaging: a novel approach for identifying high-risk individuals with long QT syndrome. European Heart Journal.  ISSN 0195-668X.  30(3), s 330- 337 . doi: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehn466
• Haugaa, Kristina Hermann; Edvardsen, Thor; Leren, TP; Gran, Jon Michael; Smiseth, Otto A. & Amlie, Jan Peder (2008). Left ventricular mechanical dispersion by tissue Doppler imaging: a novel approach for identifying high-risk individuals with long-QT syndrome. European Heart Journal.  ISSN 0195-668X.
• Gran, JM; Wasmuth, L; Amundsen, EJ; Lindqvist, Bo Henry & Aalen, OO (2008). Growth rates in epidemic models: Application to a model for HIV/AIDS progression. Statistics in Medicine.  ISSN 0277-6715.  27, s 4819- 4836 . doi: 10.1002/sim.3219 Show summary

  The most common quantity used to describe the growth of an epidemic when modelling infectious diseases is the basic reproduction number R0. While R0 is most appropriate for epidemics with short-lasting infections, long-lasting infections such as HIV/AIDS may call for the use of growth rates with other properties. For a group of multi-state compartment models we define both R0, the actual reproduction number Ra(t), and the intrinsic growth rate r .We study the relationship between these different reproduction numbers and growth rates and take a brief look at how they could be estimated from actual observed data. The work is illustrated by a model for HIV/AIDS progression among homosexual men in England and Wales. We conclude that other measures of growth, in addition to R0, give important supplementary information.

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• Stensrud, Mats Julius & Gran, Jon Michael (2020). Randomisering under en pandemi. Tidsskrift for Den norske legeforening.  ISSN 0029-2001.  140(10) . doi: 10.4045/tidsskr.20.0439
• Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting; Gran, Jon Michael; Hofvind, Solveig & Eskild, Anne (2019). The association of birthweight with age at natural menopause. A population study of women in Norway.
• Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting; Gran, Jon Michael; Hofvind, Solveig & Eskild, Anne (2019). The association of birthweight with age at natural menopause. A population study of women in Norway.
• Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting; Gran, Jon Michael; Hofvind, Solveig & Eskild, Anne (2019). The association of birthweight with age at natural menopause. A population study of women in Norway. Norsk Epidemiologi, Supplement.  ISSN 0803-4206.  28, s 78- 78
• Gottschalk, Marthe Sørli; Eskild, Anne; Hofvind, Solveig; Gran, Jon Michael & Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting (2019). Temporal trends in age at menarche and age at menopause: a population study of 312 656 women in Norway.
• Gottschalk, Marthe Sørli; Eskild, Anne; Hofvind, Solveig; Gran, Jon Michael & Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting (2019). Temporal trends in age at menarche and age at menopause: a population study of 312 656 women in Norway.
• Gottschalk, Marthe Sørli; Eskild, Anne; Hofvind, Solveig; Gran, Jon Michael & Bjelland, Elisabeth Krefting (2019). Temporal trends in age at menarche and age at menopause: a population study of 312 656 women in Norway. Norsk Epidemiologi, Supplement.  ISSN 0803-4206.  28, s 77- 77
• Gran, Jon Michael & Aalen, Odd O. (2019). Letter to the Editor: Comparison of statistical approaches dealing with time-dependent confounding in drug effectiveness studies (SMMR, Vol. 27, Issue 6, 2018). Statistical Methods in Medical Research.  ISSN 0962-2802.  28(1), s 321- 322 . doi: 10.1177/0962280218811177
• Hoff, Rune & Gran, Jon Michael (2018). Causal inference in event history analysis with complex longitudinal data. Series of dissertations submitted to the Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo. XX.
• Sundbakk, Lene Maria; Wood, Mollie; Gran, Jon Michael & Nordeng, Hedvig Marie Egeland (2018). Does prenatal exposure to benzodiazepines or z-hypnotics increase the risk of behavioral problems at 5 years?.
• Narverud, Ingunn; Bogsrud, Martin Prøven; Roeters van Lennep, Jeanine; Christensen, Jacob J.; Gran, Jon Michael; Galema-Boers, Annette; Langslet, Gisle; Ulven, Stine Marie; Retterstøl, Kjetil & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2017). MATERNAL CHOLESTEROL LEVELS MAY PREDICT LDL CHOLESTEROL LEVELS IN CHILDREN WITH FAMILIAL HYPERCHOLESTEROLEMIA.
• Narverud, Ingunn; Bogsrud, Martin Prøven; Roeters van Lennep, Jeanine; Christensen, Jacob J.; Gran, Jon Michael; Galema-Boers, Annette; Langslet, Gisle; Ulven, Stine Marie; Retterstøl, Kjetil & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2017). MATERNAL CHOLESTEROL LEVELS MAY PREDICT LDL CHOLESTEROL LEVELS IN CHILDREN WITH FAMILIAL HYPERCHOLESTEROLEMIA..
• Narverud, Ingunn; Bogsrud, Martin Prøven; Roeters van Lennep, Jeanine; Christensen, Jacob J.; Gran, Jon Michael; Galema-Boers, Annette; Langslet, Gisle; Ulven, Stine Marie; Retterstøl, Kjetil & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2017). MATERNAL CHOLESTEROL LEVELS MAY PREDICT LDL CHOLESTEROL LEVELS IN CHILDREN WITH FAMILIAL HYPERCHOLESTEROLEMIA..
• Sundbakk, Lene Maria; Nordeng, Hedvig Marie Egeland; Wood, Mollie & Gran, Jon Michael (2017). Prenatal exposure to benzodiazepines or z-hypnotics and behavioral problems at 5 years of age: A study from the Norwegian Mother and Child cohort study..
• Narverud, Ingunn; van Lennep, Jeanine Roeters; Christensen, Jacob J.; Versmissen, Jorie; Gran, Jon Michael; Iversen, Per Ole; Aukrust, Pål; Halvorsen, Bente; Ueland, Thor; Ulven, Stine Marie; Ose, Leiv; Veierød, Marit Bragelien; Sijbrands, Eric & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2016). What is the impact of maternal inheritance of FH on lipids and CRP in children with FH?.
• Svendsen, Karianne; Retterstøl, Kjetil; Telle-Hansen, Vibeke; Jacobs, David R. Jr.; Mørch-Reiersen, Lisa T.; Garstad, Kjersti W. & Gran, Jon Michael (2016). Changes in lifestyle and risk factor levels after identification of and alerting to high cardiovascular risk: a randomized controlled trial of healthy subjects visiting Norwegian pharmacies.
• Mehlum, Ingrid Sivesind; Corbett, Karina; Gran, Jon Michael & Kristensen, Petter (2015). Do psychosocial working conditions mediate social inequalities in musculoskeletal and psychiatric sickness absence in a life-course perspective?.
• Mehlum, Ingrid Alethe Sivesind; Corbett, Karina; Gran, Jon Michael & Kristensen, Petter (2014). The relationship between socioeconomic position, working conditions and sickness absence in a life-course perspective.
• Narverud, Ingunn; van Lennep, Jeanine Roeters; Christensen, Jacob Juel; Versmissen, Jorie; Gran, Jon Michael; Iversen, Per Ole; Aukrust, Pål; Halvorsen, Bente; Ueland, Thor; Ulven, Stine Marie; Ose, Leiv; Veierød, Marit Bragelien; Sijbrands, Eric; Retterstøl, Kjetil & Holven, Kirsten Bjørklund (2014). Cardiovascular risk markers in a large cohort of children and adolescents with genetically verified familial hypercholestelemia show no inheritance-related but LDL receptor mutation type- and family history of cardiovascular disease-related variance.
• Dalen, E; Sponheim, D; Torsvik, H; Lind, E; Dyrhaug, O; Gran, Jon Michael & De Lange, T (2008). ASGE and EPAGE guidelines are an important help to select and prioritise patients referred to colonoscopy. Scandinavian Journal of Gastroenterology.  ISSN 0036-5521.  43, s 36- 36
• Gran, Jon Michael (2008). Estimating the causal effect of treatment on survival from HIV - A sequential Cox approach.

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