On causal studies of climate change
Speaker: Odd O. Aalen, Professor, Department of Biostatistics, University of Oslo.
The study of climate processes is very much dependent on statistical analyses. Can statistics throw a light on causal connections apart from the physical understanding? A relevant tool is that of Granger causality. Developed originally by the Nobel prize winning economist Clive Granger this method is being applied today in many fields, like economics, neuroscience and climate. The method, obviously, does not give an automatic resolution of causal issues, but is still quite interesting and useful. I will give an introduction to Granger causality, and then review some climate studies applying this method. I shall also discuss briefly other statistical approaches that have been used.