Causal inference for working life trajectories

Improving causal inference for individual working life trajectories from registry data: studying interventions, estimands and heterogeneity

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Inclusive Working Life

Identification of interventions that ensure a well-functioning, inclusive, and adaptive working life, with high employment and reduced absence from work, is a high priority for employers and policymakers. In Norway, a major intervention that has been implemented to reach such goals is the Agreement for a more inclusive working life (the IA agreement), introduced in 2001, with its various components. There are also interventions in more medical settings where work-related outcomes are central, for example, in rehabilitation and medical treatment of individuals with health challenges, such as in patients recovering after hospitalisation for traumatic injury.

Exploring Labour Market Outcomes

This project build on recent developments in causal inference and event history analysis, and will develop new methods aimed towards studying working life trajectories based on registry data. The aim is to gain new knowledge about the effects of interventions on long-term individual labour market participation. The project will make use of three large, high-quality datasets, constructed using data from relevant nationwide administrative and medical registries, using data collected at the National Institute of Occupational Health in Norway (such as the Nor-Work cohort) and the Oslo University Hospital (with cohort data from the IPOT project).

Utilizing Comprehensive Datasets

Two of these datasets cover the general Norwegian population, while one follow patients hospitalized for traumatic injury in Norway. A special focus will be how to define, identify and estimate the effects of interventions in this setting, such as in multi-state models and with the help of modern estimation methods. Another key focus is on how the comprehensive data sources can be used to understand both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in working life outcomes.

Participants

Funding

Funded by The Research Council of Norway

Project number: 352140

Collaborators

  • National Institute of Occupational Health (STAMI)
  • Oslo University Hospital (OUS)
  • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
  • Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL)

The project also has a reference group with representatives from the Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), the Employers’ Association Spekter, the Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), the Norwegian Council for Mental Health and the Norwegian Council for Musculoskeletal Health.

Related publications

Norwegian version of this page
Published Mar. 14, 2025 9:23 AM - Last modified Feb. 27, 2026 10:04 AM