Henning Øien

• Brodeur, Abel; Mikola, Derek; Cook, Nikolai; Fiala, Lenka; Brailey, Thomas & Briggs, Ryan [Vis alle 347 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2026). Reproducibility and robustness of economics and political science research. Nature. ISSN 0028-0836. 652, s. 151–156. doi: 10.1038/s41586-026-10251-x. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Science aspires to be cumulative. Reproducibility efforts strengthen science by testing the reliability of published findings, promoting self-correction, and informing policy-making1. Computational reproductions, whereby independent researchers reproduce the results of published studies, are an essential diagnostic tool2–10. Such efforts should have greater visibility11–16. However, little social science reproduction and robustness has been conducted at scale10,13,17–23. Here we reproduced original analyses and conducted robustness checks of 110 articles that were published in leading economics and political science journals with mandatory data and code sharing policies17,18. We found that more than 85% of published claims were computationally reproducible. In robustness checks, our reanalyses showed that 72% of statistically significant estimates remain significant and in the same direction, and the median reproduced effect size is nearly the same as the originally published effect size (that is, 99% of the published effect size). Additionally, 6 independent research teams examined 12 pre-specified hypotheses about determinants of robustness. Research teams with more experience found lower levels of robustness, and robustness did not correlate with author characteristics or data availability. Robustness checks and reproduction of analyses with existing and updated data based on 110 articles in economics and political science journals with data and code-sharing requirements found high levels of robustness and reproducibility and determined that robustness was not dependent on author characteristics or data availability.

• Bjerk, Maria; Øien, Henning; Foy, Robbie; Skelton, Dawn A.; Flottorp, Signe Agnes & Taraldsen, Kristin (2026). Acceptability, appropriateness and costs of a tailored implementation strategy for the national falls prevention recommendations in Norwegian municipalities—a process evaluation of the FALLPREVENT trial. Age and Ageing. ISSN 0002-0729. 55(4). doi: 10.1093/ageing/afag089. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon H.; Nedregård, Oda & Øien, Henning (2025). Group identities and Parliamentary Debates. Journal of Politics. ISSN 0022-3816. doi: https:/www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/737781. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In list-based proportional representation systems, the election of individual politicians depends on their rank position on the ballot. Party organizations thereforeplay a crucial role in determining which candidates will be elected, and incumbents have incentives to remain popular among party elites. What role do politicians' group identities play in such a setting? We study this question using legislative speech from the Norwegian Parliament and recently developed techniques for measuring group dierences in high-dimensional choices. Across the background characteristics we consider - gender, age, urbanicity, and class background - we document substantial differences in speech, even when comparing legislators from the same political party and policy committee. This suggests that even in party-centered environments, politicians' social ties and group identities matter for the policymaking process.

• Bjerk, Maria; Pripp, Are Hugo; Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Foy, Robbie; Helbostad, Jorunn Hege Lægdheim & Skelton, Dawn A [Vis alle 12 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Tailored implementation of national recommendations on falls prevention amongst older adults in municipalities in Norway—FALLPREVENT—a hybrid type 3 cluster-randomised trial. Age and Ageing. ISSN 0002-0729. 54(10), s. 1–14. doi: 10.1093/ageing/afaf312. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Abstract Background Implementation of evidence-based falls prevention recommendations within community health care settings is variable and suboptimal. Objective Evaluate the effectiveness of a tailored implementation strategy on adherence to falls prevention recommendations in Norwegian municipalities. Design Hybrid type 3 cluster randomised trial. Participants Twenty-five city districts/municipalities, with 13 intervention and 12 control clusters and 487 health care professionals (HCPs). Intervention Clinical intervention: national recommendations for falls prevention for older adults. Tailored implementation strategy: leadership commitment, competence enhancement, resource teams and implementation support. Outcomes Primary: self-reported adherence to the recommendations (questionnaire). Secondary: feasibility of the recommendations (Feasibility of Intervention Measure), experience of the implementation process (Normalisation Measure Development Questionnaire), fidelity to recommendations and strategy, and fall-related injuries. Assessments were conducted at baseline (T0), post-intervention at 9 months (T1) and at follow-up 15 months after baseline (T2). Results HCPs adherence showed mean difference of 1.3 points (95% CI –0.2–2.9, P = .099) at T1 and 1.8 points (95% CI 0.2–3.5, P = .025) at T2, in favour of intervention versus control, along with higher scores on implementation experience at T2 (mean difference of 2.2 points; P = .033). No difference was found for feasibility or fall-related injuries. Fidelity to the recommendations was higher in the intervention clusters, for seminar attendance and implementation support. Conclusion A tailored strategy improved HCP reported adherence to and experience of implementing falls prevention recommendations. The limited effectiveness on clinical outcomes might be due to limited fidelity by HCPs in delivery of the falls prevention interventions or time needed to fully embed workforce wide implementation.

• Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez; Fevang, Elisabeth; Røed, Knut & Øien, Henning (2025). Effects of Health Shocks on Adult Children's Labor Market Outcomes and Well-Being. Health Economics. ISSN 1057-9230. 34(10), s. 1804–1820. doi: 10.1002/hec.70005. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Using Norwegian administrative register data, we assess the impact of unexpected health shocks hitting lone parents on offspring's labor market outcomes and well-being. We use first-time hip fractures or strokes as indicators of parental health shocks and estimate both the overall effects and the heterogeneous impacts by the survival time of the affected parent. We identify small, but significant, immediate responses in terms of an increase in physician-certified sickness absences and a higher risk of diagnosed mental disorders. The short-term effects are larger for offspring whose parents die shortly after the shock. Most of the effects fade out quickly, and the negative impacts on subsequent employment and earnings are small and only borderline statistically significant. In general, our results suggest that the responses to the deteriorating health of a parent tend to be short-lived and mostly manifest as temporary absences from work rather than complete detachment from the labor market.

• Kinge, Jonas Minet; Øien, Henning; Dieleman, Joseph L.; Reme, Bjørn-Atle; Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo & Godager, Geir [Vis alle 11 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Forecasting total and cause-specific health expenditures for 116 health conditions in Norway, 2022–2050. BMC Medicine. 23(1). doi: 10.1186/s12916-025-03917-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background This study forecasts total and cause-specific health expenditures in Norway to 2050 and quantifies the contribution of four key drivers—total population growth, population aging, changes in disease prevalence, and cost per case—on future health care spending. Methods We forecast spending for 116 health conditions in Norway from 2022 to 2050, using historical and forecasted data of population growth, disease prevalence, gross domestic product (GDP), health spending, and residual factors. Our analysis included a reference scenario that forecasted disease-specific health spending; two alternative scenarios examining the effects of alternative unit cost developments; and a scenario examining the consequences of improved behavioral and metabolic risk factors. Results Health spending increased from 10.6% (95% uncertainty interval, 10.2–11.1) of GDP in 2022 to 14.3% (13.0–15.7) in 2050 in the reference scenario. Among the top aggregate causes of Norwegian health spending in 2022, the spending for neurological disorders rose the most, from 1.7% (1.6–1.8) to 2.7% (2.3–3.1) of GDP, surpassing mental and substance use disorders which rose from 2.2% (2.1–2.3) to 2.4% (2.2–2.6) of GDP. Of the 116 single conditions analyzed, dementias accounted for the highest spending in 2022. This expenditure was forecasted to increase considerably from 1.1% (1.09–1.2) to 1.9% (1.6–2.2) of GDP by 2050, largely due to population aging. Spending on other old-age-related conditions like falls, stroke, and diabetes, was also forecasted to increase. Increased population, aging, and spending per case contributed to increased future spending. Reduced behavioral and metabolic risks were forecasted to increase the number of elderly persons and reduce age-specific disease prevalence but had little impact on forecasted health spending. Conclusions Health spending growth was forecasted regardless of the scenario, and Norway needs to plan for this. However, policymakers can curb total spending growth, while maintaining health care quality and output, by ensuring more efficient allocation and effective use of resources. While the overall impact of behavioral and metabolic risk reductions on total healthcare spending was modest, reducing risk factors is needed if countries aim to achieve a healthier, longer-living population.

• Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Rotevatn, Torill Alise; Øien, Henning & Reme, Bjørn-Atle (2025). Young doctors’ attrition and retention in the GP scheme: a national cohort study from Norway. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. ISSN 1403-4948. s. 1–11. doi: 10.1177/14034948251317465. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon Hernes; Nedregård, Oda & Øien, Henning (2025). The Norwegian Parliamentary Debates Dataset. Scientific Data. 12, s. 1–9. doi: 10.1038/s41597-024-04142-x. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Recent advancements in computing power and machine learning techniques have facilitated the digitization of new corpora, as well as new methods for studying high-dimensional data. This has enabled empirical investigations of fundamental questions in the social sciences that were previously restricted by technical limitations or data availability. In this note, we introduce a new dataset covering debates in the Norwegian Parliament in the 1945-2024 period. This dataset, which covers close to one million speeches, includes information about speeches (full text, date of speech, and chamber), speakers’ status (parliamentary president, member of parliament, deputy member of parliament, or cabinet minister), as well as speaker background characteristics (party affiliation, committee membership, district affiliation, rank on electoral lists, gender, and birth year). This dataset will enable extensive research into political representation in a party-centered electoral framework. More broadly, this dataset serves as a vital resource for interdisciplinary research, enabling studies on the evolution of language, rhetoric, and the broader socio-economic factors influencing legislative behavior.

• Delalic, Lamija; Grøsland, Mari; Godager, Geir & Øien, Henning (2024). Continuity of care in general practice in Norway. PLOS ONE. 19(7). doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0305164. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Aims Maintaining continuity of care between doctors and patients is considered a fundamental aspect of quality in primary healthcare. In this study, we aim to examine continuity in Norway over time by computing two commonly used indicators of continuity: the St Leonard’s Index of Continuity of Care (SLICC) and the Usual Provider of Care Index (UPC). Method We employ individual-level data, which covers all primary care consultations. This data includes the identities of each patient and physician, and we can identify each patient’s regular general practitioner (GP). The SLICC is calculated as the share of consultations conducted by the patient’s regular GP annually from 2006 to 2021. Additionally, we identify each patient’s most visited physician and compute the UPC as the share of total consultations conducted by the most visited physician during the same period. Our analysis is conducted at the national level and stratified according to the level of centrality, differentiating between areas of high, moderate, and low centrality. Results Our findings reveal that, at the national level, SLICC and UPC exhibit remarkable stability, reaching 64 and 71 percent, respectively, in 2021. However, there is significant geographical variation, with the least central areas experiencing less continuous healthcare (SLICC at 49 percent in 2021) than patients residing in more central areas (SLICC at 68 in 2021). Conclusion Our results demonstrate a high degree of continuity that has been stable over time. However, large geographical variations suggest that policymakers should strive to reduce geographical disparities in healthcare quality.

• Øien, Henning; Gjesvik, Jonas; Skyrud, Katrine Damgaard; Rotevatn, Torill Alise & Grøsland, Mari (2024). All-cause mortality and hospital admissions for nursing home residents during the COVID-19 pandemic: a Norwegian register-based cohort study. BMC Medicine. 22. doi: 10.1186/s12916-024-03523-8. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background This paper investigates the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and hospitalization among nursing home residents in Norway. While existing evidence shows that nursing home residents were overrepresented among COVID-19-related deaths, suggesting inadequate protection measures, this study argues that the observed overrepresentation in mortality and hospitalization may partly stem from the inherent frailty of this demographic. Using nationwide administrative data, we assessed excess deaths and hospitalization by comparing pandemic-era rates to those of a pre-pandemic cohort. Methods We compared mortality and hospitalization rates between a pandemic cohort of nursing home residents as of September 2019 (N = 30,052), and a pre-pandemic cohort as of September 2017 (N = 30,429). Both cohorts were followed monthly for two years, beginning in September 2019 and 2017, respectively. This analysis was conducted at the national level and separately for nursing home residents in areas with low, medium, and high SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Event studies and difference-in-difference models allowed us to separate the impact of the pandemic on mortality and hospitalization from secular and seasonal changes. Results The pandemic cohort experienced a non-significant 0.07 percentage points (95% confidence interval (CI): − 0.081 to 0.221) increase in all-cause mortality during the 18 months following pandemic onset, compared to the pre-pandemic cohort. Moreover, our findings indicate a substantial reduction in hospitalizations of 0.27 percentage points (95% CI: − 0.464 to − 0.135) and a non-significant decrease of 0.80 percentage points (95% CI: − 2.529 to 0.929) in the proportion of nursing home residents hospitalized before death. The effect on mortality remained consistent across regions with both high and low levels of SARS-CoV-2 community transmission. Conclusions Our findings indicate no clear evidence of excess all-cause mortality in Norway during the pandemic, neither nationally nor in areas with high infection rates. This suggests that early implementation of nationwide and nursing home-specific infection control measures during the pandemic effectively protected nursing home residents. Furthermore, our results revealed a decrease in hospitalizations, both overall and prior to death, suggesting that nursing homes adhered to national guidelines promoting on-site treatment for residents.

• Øien, Henning; Fevang, Elisabeth & Grøtting, Maja Weemes (2023). Forskjeller i lønn og sykefravær mellom kommunale, ideelle og kommersielle sykehjem i Norge: En registerbasert studie. Magma forskning og viten. ISSN 1500-0788. 26(5), s. 103–115. doi: 10.23865/magma.v26.1424. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Det er fortsatt et åpent spørsmål om ansatte i private sykehjem har dårligere betingelser sammenliknet med ansatte i kommunale sykehjem. Vi bruker landsdekkende individdata for lønn og sykefravær i sykehjem med offentlig finansierte plasser fra januar 2015 til juni 2020 for å undersøke lønnsforskjeller blant ansatte i kommunale, ideelle og kommersielle sykehjem. Vi fokuserer på perioden fra juli 2019, hvor vi har detaljert informasjon om arbeidstid og lønn. Vi justerer for sammensetning av ansatte på tvers av sykehjem målt ved alder, kjønn, yrkeserfaring, yrke og kommune. Siden Oslo er et eget forhandlingsområde, skiller vi mellom Oslo og resten av landet. Lønn måles ved hjelp av månedslønn, som inkluderer grunnlønn pluss faste tillegg og tillegg knyttet til kveld/natt og helg. Månedslønn gjøres om til heltidsekvivalenter slik at vi kan sammenlikne lønn for både heltids- og deltidsansatte. Vi finner ingen entydige forskjeller i sykefravær på tvers av sektorer. I Oslo finner vi vesentlige lønnsforskjeller mellom sektorer. Ansatte ved kommersielle sykehjem i hovedstaden tjener 14 prosent mindre enn ansatte ved kommunale sykehjem. Månedslønnen for ansatte ved ideelle sykehjem er 8 prosent lavere enn ved kommunale sykehjem. Forskjellene er størst for deltidsansatte. Utenfor Oslo er bildet sammensatt. Blant heltidsansatte finner vi små, ikke-signifikante lønnsforskjeller mellom sektorene. For deltidsansatte er månedslønnen henholdsvis 6 og 2 prosent lavere ved kommersielle og ideelle sykehjem sammenliknet med kommunale sykehjem. Etter yrke finner vi størst lønnsforskjeller mellom sektorer blant helsefagarbeidere og pleieassistenter både i og utenfor Oslo, men det er også vesentlige lønnsforskjeller mellom sektorer blant sykepleiere.

• Grøsland, Mari; Telle, Kjetil Elias & Øien, Henning (2023). Effect of hospital assignment on mortality for AMI patients. BMC Health Services Research. 23. doi: 10.1186/s12913-023-09441-4. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background International guidelines recommend percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to treat acute myocardial infarction (AMI) if PCI can be performed within two hours. PCI is a centralized treatment, and therefore a common trade-off is whether to send AMI patients directly to a hospital that performs PCI, or postpone a potential PCI-treatment by first receiving acute treatment at a local hospital that can not perform PCI. In this paper, we estimate the effect of sending patients directly to a PCI-hospital on AMI mortality. Methods Using nation-wide individual-level data from 2010 to 2015, we studied mortality rates for AMI patients sent directly to a hospital that performs PCI (N=20 336) compared to AMI patients sent to a hospital not performing PCI (N=33 437). Since the underlying health of patients may affect both hospital assignment and mortality, estimates from traditional multivariate risk adjustment models are likely biased. We therefore apply an instrumental variable (IV) model using the historical municipal share sent directly to a PCI-hospital as an instrument for being sent directly to a PCI-hospital. Results Patients sent directly to a PCI-hospital are younger and have fewer comorbidities than patients who are first sent to a non-PCI-hospital. IV results suggest that those initially sent to PCI-hospitals have 4.8 percentage points decrease (95% CI (- 18.1)-8.5) in mortality after one month compared to those initially sent to non-PCI-hospitals. Conclusion Our IV results suggest that there is a non-significant decrease in mortality for AMI patients sent directly to a PCI hospital. The estimates are too imprecise to conclude that health personnel should change their practice and send more patients directly to a PCI-hospital. Moreover, the results may be taken to suggest that health personnel navigate AMI patients to the best treatment option.

• Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Kverndokk, Snorre; Markussen, Simen & Øien, Henning (2023). When health trumps money: Economic incentives and health equity in the public provision of nursing homes in Norway. Social Science and Medicine. ISSN 0277-9536. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2023.116116. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The allocation of public care services should be determined by individual needs, but can be influenced by economic factors. This paper examines the impact of economic incentives on the allocation of public nursing home care in the Norwegian long-term care system. In Norway, municipalities and city districts have economic incentives for choosing nursing home care for high-income individuals in need of care and home-based care in sheltered housing for low-income individuals. The study uses a theoretical model and empirical data from the municipality of Oslo to determine if nursing home spots are allocated based on income, which would be financially advantageous for the city districts. We do not find evidence that the economic incentives of the care provider play a role in the allocation of nursing homes. Thus, in this setting, needs seem to be the dominant factor for allocation of nursing home care, while economic incentives seem to play no significant role. The clear legal mandate to provide services based on needs only is likely an important factor in this.

• Kinge, Jonas Minet; Klitkou, Søren Toksvig & Øien, Henning (2023). Future disease-specific health spending and burden of disease in Norway, 2019 to 2040. Nordic Journal of Health Economics. ISSN 1892-9729. 6(1). doi: 10.5617/njhe.10188. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The expected increase in the proportion of elderly, with increasing rates of chronic diseases, presents a challenge to the Norwegian healthcare system. In this study, we project the future burden of disease and health spending by health conditions from 2019 to 2040; and explore the importance of 1) population growth, 2) population composition, and 3) future epidemiological development for these projections. We find that total, and per capita, health spending is projected to increase in three scenarios (reference, better and worse health) from 2020 to 2040 for communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, and injuries. The increased proportion of elderly drives the increase in health spending. When keeping the age composition constant (and by this account for the increased proportion of elderly), we find that per capita health spending decreases in the reference and better health scenario but not in the worse-health scenario. If Norway aims to provide care at current levels in the future, substantial reductions in the cost of care is needed. If not, increased health spending is inevitable, due to chronic conditions in old age.

• Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Kverndokk, Snorre; Markussen, Simen & Øien, Henning (2022). Kun etter behov? Mottak av pleie- og omsorgstjenester og sammenheng med sosioøkonomisk status. Tidsskrift for omsorgsforskning. ISSN 2387-5976. 8(1). doi: 10.18261/tfo.8.1.13. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bannenberg, Normann; Førland, Oddvar; Iversen, Tor; Karlsson, Martin & Øien, Henning (2021). Preventive Home Visits. American Journal of Health Economics. ISSN 2332-3493. 7(4), s. 457–496. doi: 10.1086/714988. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This paper evaluates the introduction of preventive home visits (PHV) for older people in Norway. Their purpose is to support autonomy and independence as well as to prevent disability and nursing home admissions. Wecontribute to the literature by exploiting a natural experiment in Norwegian municipalities. Our results show that the introduction of a PHV program significantly changes the use of local public resources away from nursing homes, while increasing the utilization of home-based care. Further, PHVs lead to a decline in hospital admissions by 7 percent—whereas treatments for mental health conditions remain unaffected. Mortality is reduced by more than 4 percent in the age group 80 and above.

• Iversen, Tor; Skjeflo, Sofie Waage; Westberg, Nina Bruvik & Øien, Henning (2021). Statlige ambisjoner og lokale beslutninger i omsorgspolitikken. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. s. 29–44. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Staten har ambisiøse mål for det lokale velferdstilbudet. Siden kommunene organiserer og finansierer tilbudet, vil måloppnåelsen avhenge av lokalpolitiske prioriteringer. For å påvirke de lokale prioriteringene innfører Stortinget ofte øremerkede tilskudd. Ett eksempel på dette er investeringstilskudd til heldøgns omsorgsboliger og sykehjemsplasser. Et hovedmål med investeringstilskuddet er å øke antall plasser innen heldøgnsomsorg. I denne artikkelen undersøker vi kommunenes tilpasning til investeringstilskuddet. Vi finner verken at antallet plasser eller kommunale driftsutgifter til omsorgstjenester har økt. Vi finner at kvaliteten har økt i form av flere enerom. Artikkelen illustrerer dermed spenningene mellom nasjonale ambisjoner og kommunale beslutninger.

• Blum, Manuel R.; Øien, Henning; Carmichael, Harris L.; Heidenreich, Paul; Owens, Douglas K. & Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D. (2020). Cost-Effectiveness of Transitional Care Services After Hospitalization With Heart Failure. Annals of Internal Medicine. ISSN 0003-4819. 172(4), s. 248–257. doi: 10.7326/M19-1980. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Iversen, Tor & Øien, Henning (2019). Tilpasning til brukerbetaling for omsorgstjenester. Samfunnsøkonomen. ISSN 1890-5250. 133(6), s. 68–77. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Karlsson, Martin; Iversen, Tor & Øien, Henning (2018). Aging and Health Care Costs. I Hamilton, Jonathan (Red.), Oxford Research Encyclopedias: Economics and Finance. Oxford University Press. ISSN 9780190625979. doi: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.24. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  An open issue in the economics literature is whether health care expenditure (HCE) is so concentrated in the last years before death that the age profiles in spending will change when longevity increases. The seminal article “Ageing of Population and Health Care Expenditure: A Red Herring?” by Zweifel and colleagues argued that that age is a distraction in explaining growth in HCE. The argument was based on the observation that age did not predict HCE after controlling for time to death (TTD). The authors were soon criticized for the use of a Heckman selection model in this context. Most of the recent literature makes use of variants of a two-part model and seems to give some role to age as well in the explanation. Age seems to matter more for long-term care expenditures (LTCE) than for acute hospital care. When disability is accounted for, the effects of age and TTD diminish. Not many articles validate their approach by comparing properties of different estimation models. In order to evaluate popular models used in the literature and to gain an understanding of the divergent results of previous studies, an empirical analysis based on a claims data set from Germany is conducted. This analysis generates a number of useful insights. There is a significant age gradient in HCE, most for LTCE, and costs of dying are substantial. These “costs of dying” have, however, a limited impact on the age gradient in HCE. These findings are interpreted as evidence against the “red herring” hypothesis as initially stated. The results indicate that the choice of estimation method makes little difference and if they differ, ordinary least squares regression tends to perform better than the alternatives. When validating the methods out of sample and out of period, there is no evidence that including TTD leads to better predictions of aggregate future HCE. It appears that the literature might benefit from focusing on the predictive power of the estimators instead of their actual fit to the data within the sample.

• Øien, Henning; Jakobsson, Lars Niklas & Bonander, Carl (2018). The impact of community-based interventions for the older population: a quasi-experimental study of a hip-fracture prevention program in Norway. BMC Geriatrics. 18(1). doi: 10.1186/s12877-018-1004-z. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background Hip fractures among older adults are a major public health problem in many countries. Hip fractures are associated with expensive health care treatments, and serious adverse effects on patients’ health and quality-of-life. In this paper, we estimate the effect of a community-based hip fracture prevention program that was initiated in 16 Norwegian municipalities in 2007. Specifically, the participating municipalities implemented one or more of the following interventions: exercise programs for older adults, information and education campaigns to communicate how to effectively reduce falls to care workers and older adults, and preventive home safety assessment and modification help services. Methods We used a difference-in-difference design, and identified control municipalities by matching on pre-intervention trends in the outcome. The outcome measure was the incidence of hip-fractures among older adults (≥65 years). Results We found no statistically significant effects of the implemented program on the incidence of hip fractures, on average, in older subgroups (≥80 years) or in municipality-specific analyses. Conclusions It is unclear whether the interventions managed to achieve a change in hip fracture rates at the population level.

• Jakobsson, Niklas; Kotsadam, Andreas; Syse, Astri & Øien, Henning (2016). Gender bias in public long-term care? A survey experiment among care managers. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. ISSN 0167-2681. 131, s. 126–138. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.09.004. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Daughters of elderly women are more likely to provide informal care than sons. If care managers take this into account and view informal care as a substitute for formal care, they will statistically discriminate against the mothers of daughters. Using a survey experiment among professional needs assessors for long-term care services in Norway, we find that if a woman with a daughter had a son instead, she would receive 34 percent more formal care. On the other hand, daughters do not provide more care for fathers. Correspondingly, we find no effect of child gender for fathers in the experiment.

• Iversen, Tor; Øien, Henning & Schou, Arild (2016). Fastlegene i samhandlingsreformen. Tidsskrift for omsorgsforskning. ISSN 2387-5976. 2(2), s. 107–116. doi: 10.18261/ISSN.2387-5984-2016-02-05. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Fastlegene utfører en vesentlig del av diagnostikk og behandling i primærhelsetjenesten i Norge. Likevel er det ingen virkemidler i samhandlingsreformen som er rettet direkte mot fastlegene. Artikkelen beskriver ved hjelp av regresjonsanalyser bruken av fastlegetjenester og spesialisthelsetjenester i perioden 2009−2014 for et utvalg av kronikere og en sammenligningsgruppe. Vi finner ikke noe skift i fordelingen mellom de to typene tjenester etter at samhandlingsreformen ble introdusert fra 1. januar 2012.

• Øien, Henning; Iversen, Tor; Helgesen, Marit Kristine & Schou, Arild (2016). Fallforebygging I samhandlingsreformen. Tidsskrift for omsorgsforskning. ISSN 2387-5976. 2(3), s. 177–188. doi: 10.18261/issn.2387-5984-2016-03-04. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Et hovedmål i samhandlingsreformen er å styrke det forebyggende helsearbeidet i kommunehelsetjenesten, blant annet fordi dagens helsetjeneste kritiseres for å prioritere ressurskrevende og spesialisert behandling fremfor å forebygge helseproblemer. I denne artikkelen spør vi om samhandlingsreformen har ført til økt fokus på forebyggende helsearbeid i kommunehelsetjenesten, og vi evaluerer om fallforebyggende tiltak, som et utvalg av kommuner utviklet som en oppfølging av samhandlingsreformen, har en sammenheng med hoftebruddsinsidens (antall nye tilfeller per år). Ved hjelp av en spørreundersøkelse finner vi at 119 kommuner har utviklet fallforebyggende tiltak. Ved å benytte data om hoftebruddsinsidens på kommunenivå fra Norsk pasientregister (NPR) finner vi at årlig hoftebruddsinsidens i kommuner som har gjennomført slike tiltak har gått ned med 0.09 hoftebrudd per 1 000 innbyggere relativt til kommunene som ikke har gjennomført slike tiltak, i perioden fra før til etter samhandlingsreformen. Sammenhengen er ikke statistisk signifikant. Når vi ser på hoftebruddsinsidens fordelt etter kjønn, finner vi at årlig hoftebruddsinsidens for kvinner har gått ned signifikant, mens det for menn er en positiv, men usikker, sammenheng.

• Costa-Font, Joan; Karlsson, Martin & Øien, Henning (2016). Careful in the Crisis? Determinants of Older People's Informal Care Receipt in Crisis-Struck European Countries. Health Economics. ISSN 1057-9230. 25, s. 25–42. doi: 10.1002/hec.3385. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Syse, Astri; Øien, Henning; Solheim, Mari Bugge & Jakobsson, Niklas (2015). Variasjoner i kommunale tildelingsvurderinger av helse- og omsorgstjenster til eldre :. Tidsskrift for velferdsforskning. ISSN 0809-2052. 18(3), s. 211–233. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2014). Do Local Governments Respond to (Perverse) Financial Incentives in Long-Term Care Funding Schemes? The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy. 14(2), s. 525–549. doi: 10.1515/bejeap-2012-0066. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Wiig, Henrik & Øien, Henning (2013). Would Small Be More Beautiful in the South African Land Reform? I Holden, Stein Terje; Otsuka, Keijiro & Deininger, Klaus (Red.), Land Tenure Reform in Asia and Africa: Assessing Impacts on Poverty and Natural Resource Management. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9781137343802. doi: 10.1057/9781137343819_4. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Karlsson, Martin; Iversen, Tor & Øien, Henning (2012). Scandinavian Long-Term Care Financing. I Costa-Font, Joan & Courbage, Christophe (Red.), Financing Long-Term Care in Europe Institutions, Markets and Models. Palgrave Macmillan. ISSN 9780230249462. s. 254–278. doi: 10.1057/9780230349193_14. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning; Karlsson, Martin & Iversen, Tor (2012). The Impact of Financial Incentives on the Composition of Long-term Care in Norway. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. ISSN 2040-5790. 34(2), s. 258–274. doi: 10.1093/aepp/pps021. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv

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• Berg, Ole Trond; Hagen, Terje P.; Gjefsen, Hege Marie; Godager, Geir; Hart, Rannveig Kaldager & Kinge, Jonas Minet [Vis alle 13 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2026). Organisering og finansering av helsetjenester. Fagbokforlaget. ISBN 9788245061505. 414 s. doi: 10.55669/oa1809. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Boken gir en bred innføring i organisering og finansiering av helsetjenester, med vekt på norske forhold. Den innledende bolken omfatter kapitler om helsetjenestesystemer og forsikringsordninger, betalingssystemer og demografiske endringer. I de følgende bolkene brukes de grunnleggende begrepene til å beskrive og analysere kommunehelsetjenesten og spesialisthelsetjenesten, samt samhandlingen mellom de to nivåene. Enkelte policy-orienterte temaer, som effektivitet og likhet i tilbudet, analyseres i egne kapitler. Den avsluttende bolken er viet komparativ helsepolitikk, med beskrivelser av land med sosialforsikringsordninger og private helseforsikringer. Utviklingen av EUs helsepolitikk beskrives i et eget kapittel. Bokens underliggende perspektiv er at organisering og finansiering er virkemidler i offentlig helsepolitikk. Dette er instrumenter som kan brukes til å redusere ulikhet i tjenestetilbudet, øke effektiviteten og heve kvaliteten. Boken inneholder oppdatert kunnskap om reformer og piloter fra de siste tiårene, også reformer i andre land som har relevans for norske forhold.

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• Aas, Eline; Kinge, Jonas Minet; Burger, Emily Annika; Pedersen, Kine; Iversen, Tor & Godager, Geir [Vis alle 14 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2025). Feil tallgrunnlag kan koste liv i helsetjenesten. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon H.; Lind, Jo Thori; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Øien, Henning (2025). Sick of Politics? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon H.; Lind, Jo Thori; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Øien, Henning (2025). Sick of Politics? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon H.; Lind, Jo Thori; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Øien, Henning (2025). Sick of Politics? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon H.; Lind, Jo Thori; Reme, Bjørn-Atle & Øien, Henning (2025). Sick of Politics? CESifo Working Papers. ISSN 1617-9595. doi: https:/www.ifo.de/en/cesifo/publications/2025/working-paper/sick-politics?fbclid=IwY2xjawKQQiNleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFJUzlYMkQyMlFXN0lIcm9ZAR6zJBfB-TsLGcfA5PQi8xqJLC6dYZcfNtDywqRjqO1eIwlP3YbPJwxdgpacfg_aem_3YCXf2A9Wuimg9o9TgkZTA. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Fiva, Jon H.; Nedregård, Oda & Øien, Henning (2025). Støres regjering er balansert på kjønn. Men hvor er distriktene og arbeiderklassen? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Manglende balanse har konsekvenser for hvilke saker og temaer som løftes opp på Stortingets talerstol.

• Markussen, Simen; Kverndokk, Snorre; Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn & Øien, Henning (2024). Lik tilgang til pleie og omsorg uavhengig av lommebok. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez; Fevang, Elisabeth; Røed, Knut & Øien, Henning (2024). Effects of Health Shocks on Adult Children's Labor Market Outcomes and Well-Being. IZA Discussion Papers. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bjerk, Maria; Flottorp, Signe A.; Pripp, Are Hugo; Øien, Henning; Hansen, Tonya Moen & Foy, Robbie [Vis alle 18 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2024). Tailored implementation of national recommendations on fall prevention among older adults in municipalities in Norway (FALLPREVENT trial): a study protocol for a cluster-randomised trial. Implementation Science. 19. doi: 10.1186/s13012-024-01334-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Background Despite substantial research evidence indicating the effectiveness of a range of interventions to prevent falls, uptake into routine clinical practice has been limited by several implementation hallenges. The complexity of fall prevention in municipality health care underlines the importance of flexible implementation strategies tailored both to general determinants of fall prevention and to local contexts. This cluster-randomised trial (RCT) investigates the effectiveness of a tailored intervention to implement national recommendations on fall prevention among older home-dwelling adults compared to usual practice on adherence to the recommendations in health professionals. Methods Twenty-five municipalities from four regions in Norway will be randomised to intervention or control arms. Each municipality cluster will recruit up to 30 health professionals to participate in the study as responders. The tailored implementation intervention comprises four components: (1) identifying local structures for implementation, (2) establishing a resource team from different professions and levels, (3) promoting knowledge on implementation and fall prevention and (4) supporting the implementation process. Each of these components includes several implementation activities. The Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) will be used to categorise determinants of the implementation process and the Expert Recommendations for Implementing Change (ERIC) will guide the matching of barriers to implementation strategies. The primary outcome measure for the study will be health professionals’ adherence to the national recommendations on fall prevention measured by a questionnaire. Secondary outcomes include injurious falls, the feasibility of the intervention, the experiences of the implementation process and intervention costs. Measurements will be carried out at baseline in August 2023, post-intervention in May 2024 and at a follow-up in November 2024. Discussion This study will provide evidence on the effectiveness, intervention costs and underlying processes of change of tailored implementation of evidence-based fall prevention recommendations. Trial registration The trial is registered in the Open Science Registry: https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF. IO/JQ9T5. Registered: March 03, 2023.

• Zhang, Yuan; Øien, Henning & Iversen, Tor (2023). Norway - Handling the Pandemic and the Effects on Specialized Healthcare. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning & Kotsadam, Andreas (2023). Out-of-pocket prices and rationing of care services: Evidence from price discontinuities. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2023). Sick of politics. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2023). Quality differences between for-profit and non-profit nursing homes in quasi-markets. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2023). Effekter av foreldres helsesjokk på barns arbeidstilbud. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Taraldsen, Kristin; Bjerk, Maria; Linnerud, Siv; Solli, Rune; Brovold, Therese & Olsen, Nina Rydland [Vis alle 12 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2023). Implementation of National Advice on Falls Prevention in Municipalities in Norway – The FALLPREVENT Research Project. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez; Fevang, Elisabeth; Røed, Knut & Øien, Henning (2023). Parental health and caregiving decisions in the family: The effects of health shocks on adult children’s income. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Aas, Eline; Godager, Geir; Hagen, Terje P.; Häkkinen, Unto; Karlsson, Martin & Kittelsen, Sverre [Vis alle 8 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2023). Advancing and Inspiring Health Economics: A Special Issue in Honor of Tor Iversen. Nordic Journal of Health Economics. ISSN 1892-9729. 6(1), s. 1–5. doi: 10.5617/njhe.10299. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Professor Tor Iversen is a distinguished and highly respected health economist who has made significant contributions to the field of health economics. With this special issue, we celebrate his work.

• Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez; Fevang, Elisabeth; Røed, Knut & Øien, Henning (2023). Parental health and caregiving decisions in the family: The effects of health shocks on adult children’s income. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2023). Inntekts- og sykefraværsforskjeller blant omsorgspersonell i offentlige, ideelle og kommersielle sykehjem i Norge: En registerbasert studie. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Lizardi, Eduardo Alberto Ramirez; Fevang, Elisabeth; Røed, Knut & Øien, Henning (2023). Parental health and caregiving decisions in the family: The effects of health shocks on adult children’s income. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn; Kverndokk, Snorre; Markussen, Simen & Øien, Henning (2023). ­When Health Trumps Money: Economic Incentives and Health Equity in the Provision of Nursing Homes. CESifo Working Papers. ISSN 1617-9595. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Påvirker brukerbetalinger bruken av hjemmetjenester? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Nursing home choice. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Nursing home choice in regulated markets. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Quality differences between for-profit and non-profit nursing homes in quasi-markets. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Out-of-pocket prices and rationing of care services: Evidence from price discontinuities. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Brukerbetalinger og bruk av hjemmetjenester. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Kvalitetsforskjeller mellom offentlige og private sykehjem. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2022). Kun etter behov? Tilgangen til pleie- og omsorgstjenester og betydningen av helse, familiesituasjon og sosioøkonomisk status. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn & Øien, Henning (2021). Stor ståhei for liten margin. 31(1), s. 36–39. doi: 10.18261/ISSN0809-750X-2021-01-12. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Ekspertutvalget for utredning av offentlig finansierte velferdstjenester leverer grundige kartlegginger og nyanserte diskusjoner. Dessverre drukner mye i en politisert og støyfull debatt ført på spinkelt grunnlag.

• Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn & Øien, Henning (2021). "Små usikkerheter" i velferden. Klassekampen. ISSN 0805-3839. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Hernæs, Øystein Marianssønn & Øien, Henning (2021). Hva utvalget sier og ikke kan si. Klassekampen. ISSN 0805-3839. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2020). Tilgang etter lommebok eller behov? Sammenhengen mellom sosioøkonomisk status og tilgang på omsorgstjenester i Norge. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning & Blum, Manuel Raphael (2019). Transitional Care after Hospitalization for Heart Failure. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning; Carmichael, Harris & Blum, Manuel Raphael (2018). Cost-Effectiveness of Transitional Care Services After Hospitalization with Heart Failure. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2018). The impact of preventive home visits on the utilization of home-based and nursing home care. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2018). Virkninger av forebyggende hjemmebesøk hos eldre på bruk av sykehjems- og hjemmetjenester. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gautun, Heidi; Hellesø, Ragnhild & Øien, Henning (2018). Presentasjon «Kluss i vekslinga? Hvordan opplever sykepleiere i sykehus at eldre pasienter blir ivaretatt i overgangen til kommunale pleie- og omsorgstjenester?». Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2018). Cut to the bone? Labor market effects of public to private nursing home conversion in Oslo. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2017). Insentiver, effektivitet og kvalitet i omsorgstjenester for eldre. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2017). Virkningen av hjemmetjenester på sykehusinnleggelser for eldre. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2017). The impact of home-based care on hospital admissions for the elderly. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Holman, Per Arne & Øien, Henning (2016). Ventetidene må bli kortere – nå! Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning; Karlsson, Martin & Font, Joan Costa (2016). Informal care and the great recession. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gautun, Heidi & Øien, Henning (2016). Kartlegging av mangel på sykepleiere i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2015). Ankerskogen: et folkehelseanlegg? Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2014). Kjønnsforskjeller i tilgang til omsorgstjenester. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2014). Kvinner med døtre får mindre hjemmehjelp fra kommunen enn de med sønner. [TV]. NRK, Dagsnytt 18. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2014). Forskere blind-testet kommunene og fant ut at de vil gi to timer mer hjemmehjelp til pleietrengende med mannlige pårørende enn til kvinnelige. [TV]. NRK, Her og Nå. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning (2014). Eldre med døtre får minst hjemmehjelp fra kommunene. [Radio]. NRK P2, Nyhetsmoren. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Øien, Henning; Karlsson, Martin & Iversen, Tor (2011). The Impact of Economic Incentives on the Assignment to Type of Long Term Care in Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gautun, Heidi; Øien, Henning & Bratt, Christopher (2020). En utvikling som må snus. Bemanning og kompetanse i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. NOVA/OsloMet. ISSN 9788278945896. doi: https:/hdl.handle.net/20.500.12199/5101. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Rapporten sammenfatter forskning, statistikk og kartlegginger av sykepleierbemanning i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. I tillegg til å gi en oversikt over mangel på sykepleiere, presenteres forskning som har undersøkt konsekvenser av sykepleiermangel, samt strategier for å rekruttere, mobilisere og beholde sykepleiere i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. Rapporten er basert på data og forskning om norske sykehjem og hjemmesykepleietjenester.

• Westberg, Nina Buvik; Skjeflo, Sofie Waage; Hveem, Ellen Balke; Pedersen, Simen; Øien, Henning & Sørvoll, Jardar [Vis alle 9 forfattere av denne artikkelen] (2019). Evaluering av investeringstilskudd til omsorgsboliger og sykehjem. Menon Economics. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Gautun, Heidi; Øien, Henning & Bratt, Christopher (2016). Underbemanning er selvforsterkende. Konsekvenser av mangel på sykepleiere i hjemmesykepleien og sykehjem. NOVA. ISSN 9788278945889. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  I denne rapporten dokumenteres stor mangel på sykepleiere i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. En spørreundersøkelse blant 4945 sykepleiere viser at mangel på sykepleiere både går ut over kvaliteten på tjenestene og arbeidsmiljøet til de ansatte. Få nyutdannede sykepleiere ønsker, og begynner, å jobbe i sykehjem og hjemmesykepleien. Halvparten av de 4945 sykepleierne sier de vurderer å slutte fordi tidspresset er for stort. Tjenester som klarer å beholde sykepleiere, har høy status, er godt bemannet med sykepleiere, og gir sykepleierne gode karrieremuligheter. Tjenester som kan komme til å miste sykepleiere, kan snu utviklingen ved å satse på videreutdanning, valg av og utvikling av bedre ledere, å tilby høyere lønn, å gi større mulighet til å slippe å jobbe vakter de ikke ønsker, og å tilby fast jobb og heltidsstillinger.

• Berge, Thea; Øien, Henning & Jakobsson, Lars Niklas Støre (2014). Formell og uformell omsorg. Samspillet mellom familien og velferdsstaten. NOVA. ISSN 9788278945261. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Dette prosjektet finner at uformell omsorg er relatert til flere aspekter ved omsorgsgiveres tilknytning til arbeidslivet og psykisk velvære. Vi finner også at kvinner som yter uformell eldreomsorg i et omfattende omfang har en lavere sannsynlighet for å være i jobb. Dette gjelder imidlertid ikke de individene som yter omsorg i mindre omfang. Gjennom en vignett-undersøkelse om tildeling av hjemmetjenester undersøkes variasjoner i tildeling av kommunale omsorgstjenester. Resultatene tyder på at det er stor variasjon både mellom og innad i kommunene. Dermed kan omsorgstilbudet avhenge av hvor du bor og hvilken saksbehandler du får tildelt. Funnene tyder på at kjønn spiller en rolle for tildeling av offentlige pleie- og omsorgstjenester i Norge.

• Hagen, Terje P.; Amayu, Kebebew Negera; Godager, Geir; Iversen, Tor & Øien, Henning (2011). Utviklingen i kommunenes helse- og omsorgstjenester 1986-2010. Universitetet i Oslo. ISSN 9788277562254. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  Norge, som alle andre vestlige land, står foran en periode med betydelig økning i antall eldre. Økningen både i antall og andel eldre blir feilaktig beskrevet som en ”eldrebølge”. Beskrivelsen er feilaktig fordi flere eldre ikke er et forbigående fenomen. Det er ingen bølge. Økningen i antall eldre fortsetter så langt prognosene til nå er laget, til 2060. Antall personer 67 år og eldre sank fra en topp på 620 000 i 1995 til drøye 600 000 i 2004 fordi de nye pensjonistene kom fra de små fødselskullene fra 1930-årene. Antall personer 67 år og eldre har deretter vokst noe, og vil øke raskere framover, fra 614 000 i 2008 til om lag 1,5 millioner i 2060 i følge mellomalternativet til Statistisk sentralbyrå. Dette er over dobbelt så mange som i dag (Brunborg, m. fl, 2008). Den sterke økningen i antall eldre stiller krav til utformingen av offentlig politikk. I denne rapporten analyseres tre spørsmål som alle er viktige for å forstå endringene og utfordringene innen pleie- og omsorgstjenestene. De tre spørsmålene er: Korrigert for tjenestemottakeres bistandsbehov - koster det mindre for kommunen å satse på utbygging av hjemmetjenester framfor institusjonstjenester? Hvordan har veksten i kommunale pleie- og omsorgstjenesten vært og hva er årsakene til veksten i perioden 1986–2010? Hvordan påvirker utbygging av hjemmetjenester kvaliteten på tjenesten som tilbys den enkelte bruker?

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